South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield has remained in a narrow 9.6%–9.7% range since late July, tracking modest global movements as traders navigate economic, monetary and geopolitical factors. Market attention is focused on the upcoming Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium for clues on US interest rate policy, alongside domestic inflation data. South Africa’s inflation is seen rising to 3.6% in July from 3% in June. On July 31, the SARB surprised markets by cutting rates 25 basis points to 7%, signaling a preference to anchor inflation expectations near the lower bound of its 3%–6% target range. Governor Kganyago noted that inflation is expected to rise temporarily but should return to around 3% over the medium term. This prompted traders to increase bets on further easing, with the probability of another 25-basis-point cut by year-end now elevated. Meanwhile, a 30% US tariff on South African exports came into effect on August 7, and with no further updates, uncertainties persist.