15 August 2025, 17:32 USA: 10-Year Yield Holds Rebound.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held around 4.3% on Friday, holding the rebound from 4.2% in the previous session as new economic data countered the urgency for multiple rate cuts by the Fed. Headline and control group retail sales rose sharply in July, while import prices unexpectedly jumped the most in 15 months despite the tariffs passed by the White House. This added to the hawkish tweak to expectations on the Fed this year after a hot producer price. The results rekindled concerns that expansionary fiscal policy and tariffs by the government may prevent inflation from converging to the Fed's target, contrasting with the tame CPI figures released earlier in the week. While markets continued to expect a 25bps rate cut in the Fed's upcoming September meeting, rate futures showed lower confidence over three total cuts for the rest of the year. Tariffs and higher deficit spending had already driven indirect bidders from lower bids in the latest 10-year note auction.
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