South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield was around 9.6%, remaining close to January-lows, as traders priced in potential rate cuts while also assessing the risks posed by fresh US tariffs. On July 31, the SARB surprised markets by cutting rates 25 basis points to 7% and signaling a preference to anchor inflation expectations at the lower bound of its 3%–6% target range. Governor Kganyago noted that although inflation is expected to rise temporarily in the coming months, it should return to around 3% over the medium term. This outlook prompted traders to increase bets on easing, with the probability of another 25-basis-point cut by year-end now elevated. Meanwhile, the 30% US tariff on South African exports took effect on August 7, despite last-minute efforts by the government to negotiate a resolution. The SA Chamber of Commerce in the US warned that the tariffs could significantly slow economic growth and cause job losses, with the automotive industry facing the greatest strain.