1 August 2025, 16:18 Euro Zone: EUR Rises from 7-Week Low on Soft US Payrolls.
The euro rebounded above $1.15 after earlier hitting a seven-week low of $1.139, boosted by a weaker-than-expected US jobs report that intensified expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, falling short of the 100,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% in June. Consequently, markets now assign a 75% probability to a September Fed rate cut, up sharply from 45% before the report. In Europe, further ECB rate cuts seem less likely as inflation is expected to stay above the central bank’s projections in the near term. Nonetheless, markets have priced in a 60% chance of a 25 bps ECB rate cut by December, up from 50% prior to the US data release. Recent figures showed eurozone consumer inflation steady at 2.0% in July, slightly exceeding the 1.9% expected by markets. Investors also factored in the impact of newly announced US tariffs, which impose a 15% duty on EU exports to the US.
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