The Chicago Business Barometer slipped to 40.4 in June 2025 from 40.5 in May, missing market expectations of 43. The index has now stayed below the 50-point threshold for 19 straight months and sits 7.2 points below March’s high of 47.6. The decline was driven by lower readings in supplier deliveries (-6.8 pts), production (-2.7 pts), employment (-3.9 pts), and order backlogs (-1.5 pts), partially offset by a 4.1-point rebound in new orders. Order backlogs fell to their lowest level since May 2020, with just 4% of respondents reporting larger backlogs - near a record low. Inventories dropped 8 points. Meanwhile, prices paid surged 8.3 points to the highest since May 2022, with 70% of firms reporting higher input costs.