27 August 2018, 17:27  The EUR/USD is in the mid 1.1600s

The EUR/USD is trading in the mid 1.1600s, extending its gains. A risk-on environment pushes the USD lower against the euro. In addition, the German IFO Business Climate beat expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is not overheating and inflation is not accelerating. He also added conditionality to further rate hikes. A September rate increase is a done deal and December is also highly likely. The path forward is more complicated. Looking at the technical picture, the bullish move now seems to have stalled ahead of a short-term descending trend-line, extending from mid-May. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a convincing break through the mentioned barrier, currently near the 1.1675 region, before positioning for any further near-term up-move. Above the said hurdle, the pair is likely to easily surpass the 1.1700 handle and aim towards retesting the 1.1745-50 heavy supply zone. A follow-through buying has the potential to continue lifting the pair further towards its next major hurdle, near the 1.1800 handle. Alternatively, retracement back below the 1.1600 round figure mark would reinforce the trend-line resistance and prompt some fresh selling and drag the pair back towards 1.1535-30 strong horizontal support. A subsequent drop below the key 1.1500 psychological mark would negate prospects for any further recovery and turn the pair vulnerable to slide back towards retesting the 1.1400 handle.

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