23 January 2018, 14:36  Eurozone goes up

Analysts at BBH suggest that the broader normalization is taking place in the Eurozone. Before the weekend, there were two noteworthy announcements by the rating agencies. First, for the first time in two years, a major rating agency (in this case Fitch) upgraded Spain to A-. It puts Spain in the "A" bucket for the first time since 2012. The other rating agencies are not there yet, but barring a new shock, it would not be surprising if S&P upgraded Spain's BBB+ rating at its late March review. Moody's will review Spain in April and currently holds it at the equivalent of BBB (i.e. Baa2). In anticipation of Fitch's decision, the 10-year premium Spain pays over Germany narrowed to less than 90 bp for the first time since 2010. There may be scope for another 20-30 bp of narrowing in the coming months.” The second announcement was S&P upgrading Greece to B from B-. It is S&P's first upgrade of Greece in a couple of years and could hardly come at a better time. The Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers meets at the start of the week. It will likely approve the next tranche of aid to Greece. Greece is expected to follow this with a bond sale in the coming weeks as it prepares to exit the third assistance program later this year (August). Fitch had upgraded Greece to B- last summer, while Moody's lags with its Caa2 rating. Greek bonds have performed remarkably well. The 10-year yield was near 5.50% at the end of last November and finished last week near 3.85%. Last February the yields were above 8%. The Greek premium over Germany was more than 500 bp in early December and now stands a little below 330 bp, the least since 2010. Much good news appears to have been discounted. The S&P move was a catch-up move to Fitch and the likely reluctance of the Eurogroup to announce fresh debt concessions may spur some profit-taking. Such a backing up of yields that may result could help create a little concession for prospective buyers at the debt auction.

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