Forward guidance – that QE will continue at the current pace at least until December 2017 – remains unchanged. The Governing Council (GC) will likely maintain key phrases in the press statement, saying that rates will remain “at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of...net asset purchases”, and that risks to the economy remain “tilted to the downside”. Any softening of these statements could signal earlier removal of policy accommodation. The macroeconomic environment has brightened in the past two quarters and markets have begun pondering when the ECB will outline its exit strategy. But underlying inflation pressures are low and risks remain. Several political and geopolitical events could reignite a risk-off environment, most immediately the French presidential elections. We think that changes to President Draghi’s statement may come in June, and the prospect of tapering in 2018 may be introduced, as long as growth stays buoyant and political risks in France fade.