24 April 2017, 16:09  US initial estimates for Q1 GDP in focus this week

The analysis team at BBH points out that the economic data highlights for the week includes the flash HICP measure of inflation for the Eurozone and the US and UK initial estimates for Q1 GDP. “The Eurozone inflation is expected to have ticked up in April after falling in March. The Easter holiday is generating some noise, but Draghi's assessment seems fair. The headline rate is expected to rise to 1.7% from 1.5%. The core rate can rise to 0.9% from 0.7%. It averaged 0.9% in 2016 and 0.8% in 2014 and 2015.” “The UK is expected to have grown around 0.4% in Q1, decelerating from 0.7% in Q4 16. It has averaged 0.5% over the past four, eight and 20 quarters. The market impact is likely to be marginal. The dismal March retail sales report failed to spur a serious pullback in the sterling. Sterling's sharp advance seemed more about positioning, and the prospects of a softer Brexit, and reduced risk of no agreement rather than economic support.”

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