4 January 2017, 17:42  US Dollar Index dips

The greenback, tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains on the defensive today, now navigating the lower bound of the daily range near 102.80. The index has quickly broken below the 103.00 key support earlier today amidst a broad-based selling bias surrounding the buck, which has allowed in turn the ongoing rebound in the risk-associated space. USD is retreating for the first time this week although it remains well supported around the 102.00 neighbourhood, Monday’s low. Recent positive results from gauges of the US manufacturing sector (Markit and ISM) lent extra legs to the Dollar at the beginning of the week, although buyers seem to have found strong resistance at yesterday’s fresh 14-year tops in the boundaries of 103.80. Later in the NA session, the FOMC will release its minutes for the December meeting, with consensus expecting the Committee to deliver a hawkish tone. Market participants also expect some discussion over the projected 3 hikes during this year (‘dots plot’) and the potential overshooting of the Fed’s targets in both employment and inflation (in response to potential fiscal stimulus). In addition, and somewhat capping the upside in DXY, USD speculative net longs remained around 2-week lows during the week ended on December 27, as shown by the latest CFTC report. The index is losing 0.44% at 102.79 and a breakdown of 102.62 (low Jan.3) would aim for 102.31 (20-day sma) and then 101.95 (low Dec.30). On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at 103.81 (2017 high Jan.4) followed by 107.38 (monthly high Dec.2002) and finally 109.25 (monthly high Aug.2002).

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