17 November 2016, 17:59  USD/JPY sets to extend recent upward

After Wednesday's brief pause, the USD/JPY pair resumed with its near-term upward trajectory and remained within striking distance of over five-month high level of 109.75 touched yesterday. The pair's upward trajectory following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election has been led by a sharp spike in the US 10-year Treasury bond yields on expectations of aggressive fiscal spending under Trump's administration. Higher fiscal spending is expected to kick-off inflation. Moreover today's US economic data, showing CPI inching closer to the Fed's 2% target area, further fueled expectations that the Fed would eventually hike rates in the near-term. Adding to this, text of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony said that an increase in interest rates “could well become appropriate relatively soon” if incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the FOMC objectives and further pushed December Fed rate-hike expectations. Currently the CME group's FedWatch Tool is pricing in over 90% probability of such an action in December. The pair's recent phase of appreciating move was further supported by global bonds sell-off, as depicted by rising Japanese 10-year bond yields, and downslide in the Volatility Index (VIX). However, a rebound in VIX and a minor pull-back in bond yields restricted further up-move for the major. With all the intrinsic favoring the pair's ongoing bullish momentum, it would be prudent to categorize the current price-action as a consolidation phase, amid near-term overbought conditions, before the pair resumes with its near-term up-trend and easily surpass 110.00 psychological mark towards testing May daily closing highs resistance near 111.00-111.10 region.

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