28 November 2014, 17:51  The main focus next week for the USD is Friday’s NFP data

The main focus next week for the USD would be Friday’s NFP data, which is anticipated to add 1k more jobs to previous month’s print. The main focus would be on the Friday’s nonFarm Payrolls data, which is likely to show the US economy added 215K jobs in October, compared to the previous month’s print of 214K. Apart from the NFP data, the manufacturing and services index will be watched out by the markets. It is worth noting that USD stands to gain amid the slumping oil price, since the resulting fall in inflation expectations provides more room for other major central bankersex Fed to conduct more aggressive stimulus measures. However, the Fed has just ended its QE program in October. In such a scenario, even a slightly better-than-expected US data shall push the yield spread in favor of the USD. Moreover, the ten-year treasury yield declined to 2.208%, after it breached the 2.27%2.4% range witnessed during the major part of the last this month. Thus, the yields have further room to extend decline to 2.14%. However, the fall in the treasury yield would do little to weaken the USD against the EUR or the GBP, since both these currencies are hit by more dovish expectations from their respective central banks. Moreover, it would take a surprisingly weak US NFP and some rebound in crude prices to trigger USD weakness against the EUR and the GBP. Hence, the USD appears more vulnerable against the Yen in case the ten-year yield in the US continues to fall towards 2.14%

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