After some robust data in the past few months, which have contributed to the rebound in GDP, the street is looking for a pullback in the trade surplus to CAD1.6bn in August, down from July's CAD2.58bn black ink entry; that was the widest surplus since 2008 but might have been driven by some one-offs. A smaller trade surplus should not be too much of a drag on the CAD and another positive surprise should be a mild positive, at least. It is unlikely to change the thinking in Ottawa to any extent, however. We can see from the latest GDP reports that trade has been a stronger contributor to growth but the Canadian export sector still has a fair bit of ground to make up, having lagged behind the global trade recovery in the past few years." And that other, long-AWOL component of GDP growth that officials are hoping to do more of the growth heavy-lifting—investment– remains sluggish. "Better trade data will be a plus, but only a modest one, for the CAD. More important for USDCAD today will be the big dollar’s reaction to the US employment data. Chart-wise, the mid-week turn lower in USDCAD is still suggestive of a stall in the USD rally, even taking into account yesterday’s rebound off the lows. The USD has nudged higher overnight but might be running into a little more selling interest as the North American session gets underway." We see short-term resistance at 1.1205/10 this morning and a little more softness likely again below 1.1160/65."