29 October 2014, 17:22  USD/CAD remains below 1.12

The TD Securities team of experts point out that USD/CAD remains below the 1.12 level on Wednesday, but the loonie could get a short lift if the BoC governor Poloz's speech later today conveys a dovish stance. "The real focus today will be on the US FOMC meeting outcome at 14.00ET and the impact of the Fed’s policy decision on the USD and risk markets. We look for QE to end this month and for the Fed to suggest that rates are set to remain low for a considerable period; if there are any dovish surprises today, the statement is where they will be found (perhaps be stressing inflation worries)." "Afterwards, however, the Canadian markets’ attention will turn to Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins’ appearance before the Senate banking committee; this will give the governor an opportunity to flesh out the thinking behind last week’s decision to drop the bank’s neutral forward guidance but it is also likely to see the governor stress that there is still considerable excess capacity in the Canadian economy and that there is no rush to raise rates. A dovish sounding governor may help check the push up in the CAD temporarily at least." "On the charts, yesterday’s break below the daily channel base leaves USDCAD resting on intraday support at 1.1155/60; a dovish surprise from the FOMC may see funds test the low 1.11s (200-day MA at 1.1123)." "That has been a pretty good zone of support/resistance for USDCAD in the past few months and, with Poloz speaking later in the day and likely to sound dovish, USDCAD weakness should find some traction around 1.1115/25."

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