27 March 2014, 16:29  Pound above 1.6600

The sterling is marching buoyant on Thursday, with the GBP/USD attempting to consolidate the recent post-retail sales advance beyond the 1.6600 handle. Spot has not only recovered the 1.6600 handle but it is also posting fresh weekly highs in the area just below 1.6650, after UK retail sales largely exceeded estimates in February (1.7% MoM, 1.8% MoM exc. Fuel). “There is undoubtedly some recovery in UK consumer confidence and spending – and possibly to a greater extent than assumed by consensus forecasts (trend-like real household consumption growth of 2.4% this year). But the strength in the latest retail sales data appear to be exaggerated by small sub-sectors so we would expect to see some moderation/normalisation in the months ahead”, noted Ross Walker, Analyst at RBS. At the moment the pair is up 0.26% at 1.6624 with the next resistance at 1.6642 (high Mar.27) ahead of 1.6655 (high Mar.19) and then 1.6667 (high Mar.17). On the downside, a break below 1.6563 (10-d MA) would clear the way to 1.6500 (psychological level) and finally 1.6460 (low Mar.24).

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