15 November 2012, 17:52  Moody's revisit the U.K.'s AAA government debt rating

Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday said it will revisit the U.K.'s AAA government debt rating and the current 'negative' outlook next year in the face of gloomier economic prospects and rising risks from euro area crisis. Releasing the annual credit report on the country, Moody's cautioned that the government's efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation and reduce debt are being hampered by weaker economic prospects as well as by the risks posed by the ongoing euro area sovereign debt crisis. The rating agency will revisit the rating and outlook in the first few months of 2013 to assess the impact of these challenges and of the government's upcoming Autumn Statement. In Moody's view, the UK government's most significant policy challenge is balancing the need for fiscal consolidation against the need for economic stimulus. The agency said the upcoming Autumn Statement, to be released in December, may reveal "the likely speed of fiscal consolidation, the growth outlook" and "the likelihood that the debt trajectory will stabilise and start to decline within the rating horizon." Moody's assessment will also take into account the evolution of the ongoing crisis in the euro area, which has the potential to affect the UK through three channels such as trade, the financial sector as well as consumer and investor confidence. According to the rating agency, the important strengths that underpin the top rating included a large, diversified and highly competitive economy, flexible labour force and structural reforms, a favourable debt structure, the commitment to fiscal consolidation and very high institutional strength. Moody's expects these strengths to persist over the medium to long term. However, the agency said the UK's growth shortfalls have clearly been credit-negative and have reduced the sovereign's ability to absorb further fiscal or economic shocks. The weaker macroeconomic environment will create headwinds for revenue growth and increase the risk that the country's debt metrics will not stabilise within the next 3-4 years, Moody's said. The rating firm also noted that this issue was the main driver of the decision to change the UK's rating outlook to 'negative' in February and remains a critical rating driver for the sovereign rating going forward.

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