The Expert Group expects economic development for the remainder of this and the next year to be characterized on the one side by a significantly differing picture between the domestic sectors performing well (construction, consumer-related areas, domestic economy-oriented services) and on the other, by export sectors under increased pressure to adapt. All this with a moderate overall growth in GDP of 1.4% (previously 0.8%) in 2012 and 1.5% (previously 1.8%) in 2013. In this context the upward revision of the forecast for the current year is ex-plained almost entirely by the developments during the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012 which exceeded expectations and not by a more optimistic assessment of the econom-ic prospects.
The Swiss economy achieved clear positive growth in the 1 quarter 2012 and has come through the winter 2011/2012 in significantly better shape than had been feared. This re-markable resistance to crisis is thanks in considerable part to the continuing robust economic activity on the domestic front. For example, investments in construction and domestic house-hold demand are being helped by the historically low interest rates, falling inflation and a growing population (as a result of the continuous immigration). However, despite the strong Swiss franc and recessionary economic situation in many EU countries, the export industry also continued to perform relatively well, with significant variations in the individual sectors. Whilst exports of clocks, watches and pharmaceuticals (the two categories together account for more than half of the exports of goods) have to-date performed robustly, the weak trends for example in tourism and the mechanical engineering industry are more pronounced. The floor established for the exchange rate against the Euro plays a key role in this context as this has stabilized the currency situation and created some planning security for companies; this has so far had a positive effect on the business situation. Switzerland will not escape the difficult environment for the export industry unscathed. The turbulent events on the currency markets since 2010 have forced many ex-port companies to reduce their sale prices to the detriment of margins in order to remain in-ternationally competitive despite the strength of the Swiss franc. This is reducing the cushion for being able to mitigate further negative developments. The situation in the industrial sector is therefore problematical and the latest deterioration in Europe poses a serious risk to the further development. The economic resilience of the Swiss economy is also reflected on the labor market which continues to show robust health. The level of employment increased further over the winter and the rate of unemployment has only risen slightly over recent months (increase in the seasonally adjusted unemployment level since autumn 2011, from 3.0% to 3.1% as at end May 2012). Consequently, the latest course of development on the Swiss labor market has been markedly better than that in most European countries (with the exception of Germany) where the level of unemployment is rising sharply. However, according to the assessment by the Expert Group the level of unemployment during the remainder of this year could show a further slight rise, with particularly those areas of the economy suffering from economic or structural problems (such as some areas of the export industry, tourism as well as in the fi-nance sector) possibly seeing further redundancies. This gives yearly average unemploy-ment levels of 3.2% for 2012 and 3.4% for 2013. The key economic risk is posed by the Euro debt crisis. The positive growth forecasts for the Swiss economy are significantly dependent upon the assumption that European economic policy is successful in preventing an uncontrolled proliferation of the crisis into a widespread banking and financial crisis. In addition to the political imponderables in Greece which, under certain circumstances, could lead to state bankruptcy and Greece’s departure from the Euro-pean currency union, the focus is currently also on Spain’s banking problems. Many Spanish banks are continuing to suffer significantly from the consequences of the real estate crisis