17 February 2012, 19:06  Optimism about euro will be short-lived

Beyond the EU meeting on tap for next week, there’s concerns that German officials may soften their support for the EUR 130B bailout as the lower house of parliament is scheduled to vote on the package on February 27, and the single currency remains poised to face additional headwinds over the near-term as the sovereign debt crisis continues to weigh on the fundamental outlook for the euro-area. As the EUR/USD extends the rebound from 1.3079, optimism surrounding the EU meeting could spark another run at the 100-Day SMA (1.3314), but we will maintain our call to see the exchange rate fall back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2630-50 as the sovereign debt crisis remains far from being resolved.

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