The economy is set to grow by 1.5% this year, with exports increasing by 6%, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute. But a further 25,000 jobs will be lost, and the ESRI believes some 50,000 people will emigrate this year.
In its latest quarterly commentary, the ESRI forecasts growth for the Irish economy of 1.5% of GDP this year and 2.25% for next year. Gross national product, which excludes profits from the multinationals, should grow by 0.25% this year and 1.5% next year. This growth will be driven by continuing strong export performance.
But the ESRI says the combined effects of income tax increases in the Budget, continuing problems in the banking industry, and a collapse in consumer confidence will depress demand, leading to some 25,000 fewer jobs.Unemployment is forecast to average 13.5% this year, dropping slightly to 13% next year.
But the ESRI expects emigration to pick up strongly, with some 50,000 forecast to emigrate this year. This compares to 44,000 who left the country in 1989, the peak year for emigration in the 1980s.