6 October 2010, 18:02  Pound slumps towards a fresh 4-month low against Euro

"The British Pound slumped towards a fresh 4-month low against the Euro this morning, as the pessimistic outlook for the UK economy increases the probability that the Bank of England will resume quantitative easing in tomorrow's monthly MPC meeting," says Adam Solomon at foreign exchange brokers TorFx. There is a number of diverging opinions within the Central Bank's committee and this month could be the first to result in a three-way split since last year. Policy maker Adam Posen last week said that the Bank "should continue to be aggressive about promoting recovery" emphasising his support for a resumption in the plan. Posen has since been backed by the British Chambers of Commerce and the Institute of Directors. Recent economic reports do indicate that the UK economic recovery is slowing dramatically in the third quarter, despite the apparent resilience in service sector growth. To that end, the second quarter growth figures, which showed that the economy expanded at the fastest pace in nine year, will represent the peak of the recovery this year. "However, at least one member of the eight-man committee, Andrew Sentence, has been the lone voice for an interest rate hike in recent months, citing persistently high inflation as the reason to tighten monetary policy. The rest of the MPC have preferred to adopt a "wait and see" policy, but with the government spending cuts due on the 20th October, it will be interesting to see if one majority comes out on top," says Solomon. The British Pound is likely to decline further against the Euro in the build up to Thursday's midday announcement and speculation of further quantitative easing has been largely factored into the market.

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