7 January 2010, 18:52  Bank of England: Policy steady

The Bank of England kept the scale of its asset purchase programme unchanged at 200 billion pounds on Thursday and said it would decide whether or not to extend it next month. The central bank also left interest rates at a record-low 0.5 percent, a decision which had been unanimously expected by economists polled by Reuters and caused no reaction from sterling or government bonds. Most economists predict the Bank to call time on the scheme, which uses newly created money to buy financial assets, mostly gilts, and was launched last March in an unprecedented attempt to boost an economy ravaged by a global credit crunch. But they expect interest rate rises to be much further off. Next month, the Monetary Policy Committee will have new quarterly growth and inflation forecasts, as well as official data which is expected to confirm the economy ended a year-and-half of recession in the last three months of 2009. This likely return to growth means most economists doubt the Bank will further expand the asset-buying policy though past policy surprises mean few will completely rule it out. "The key question is whether the MPC will vote for a further extension of QE in February or whether it will announce a halt," said Simon Hayes, UK economist at Barclays Capital. "In the absence of any major downside news over the next few weeks we think the latter is the likelier outcome." The Bank made no statement about the economy in an announcement after its monthly policy meeting, which as in December simply said the MPC would review the scale of quantitative easing at February's meeting once existing funds had been spent. The expectation that the Bank will cease gilt purchases after February has been a major factor behind a fall in 10-year British government bonds last week to their lowest in over a year relative to German bonds. "The Bank is now set to be buying gilts at a considerably slower pace than the rate of issuance with or without a small further extension to QE," said David Tinsley, UK economist at National Australia Bank. "The Committee's job is therefore arguably increasingly to ensure a smooth transfer to the post-QE world, which they would probably see as involving some further move up in yields but nothing so dramatic as kill the recovery."

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