14 January 2008, 18:01  Euro firms at start of key week for inflation figures

The euro remained well-supported due to expectations that inflation figures out later this week will signal the currency is set to gain a yield advantage over the US in the coming months. Analysts said inflation readings in the UK, US and euro zone are likely to go a long way to determine how the world's central banks are going to act in the weeks and months ahead. Slowing growth in the UK and US means markets expect the Federal Reserve and Bank of England to cut rates further in the coming months, with US interest rates forecast to fall to 3.75 pct on January 30th from their current level of 4.25 pct. But strong euro zone inflation, coupled with fewer signs of slowing growth means borrowing costs in the 15-nation single currency area are expected to remain at 4.00 pct for the next few months. "With the BoE and Fed both likely to cut at their next monetary policy meetings, and the hawkish rhetoric of the European Central Bank press conference last Thursday, the euro should remain well supported in the short run with rate expectations remaining a key driver," said analysts at Though euro zone and US figures are not due until later in the week, the euro has started the week firmly, rising as high as 1.4914 usd at one point - its highest level since the end of November last year. US figures on Wednesday are expected to show CPI up a monthly 0.2 pct in December, down from the 0.8 pct increase recorded in November. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to have increased 0.2 pct in December following a 0.3 pct increase in the previous month. Euro zone figures on the same day are expected to show that inflation was up an above-target 3.1 pct in the year to December, with prices rising 0.4 pct month-on-month. The dollar is also under pressure due to fears that several large US banks will report huge losses from their dealings in the subprime market later this week. Market talk that Citigroup may announce up to 20 bln usd in subprime losses follows reports last week that Merrill Lynch will report a 15 bln usd write down.

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