7 December 2007, 15:10  OECD Oct composite leading indicator 99.3

The OECD said its composite leading indicator fell to 99.3 in October from a revised 99.7 in September. The CLI was down 2.0 points from a year earlier. The September figure was revised up from a provisional 99.5. The OECD said analysis of the CLI data points to a moderate downturn in the advanced economies in the period ahead, and a weakening outlook for all the G7 countries. "The latest composite leading indicators suggest that a moderate downturn in economic activity lies ahead in the OECD area," it said. The CLI summarises information contained in a number of key short-term indicators and provides early signals of turning points in GDP or industrial production, the OECD said. Turning points in GDP or industrial output are generally found around six months after signals of turning points in the CLI, it said. A rising CLI reading points to an economic expansion if the index is above 100 and a recovery if it is below 100. Meanwhile, a CLI which is declining points to an economic downturn if it is above 100 and a slowdown if it is below 100, the OECD said. For the US, the CLI fell 0.6 points to 101.1 in October and stands 0.5 points below its year earlier level. This points to a moderate downturn, the OECD said. The CLI for the euro zone eased 0.1 points to 98.4 and is 1.9 points down from a year earlier, signalling a moderate slowdown, it said. The Japan CLI dropped 1.6 points to 93.1 in October and now shows an 8.5 point decline from a year ago. This points to a strong slowdown, the OECD said. The CLI for the UK eased 0.1 points to 100.6 in October, unchanged from a year earlier. The UK data are consistent with a possible downturn, it said. Outside the OECD area, the CLI for China rose 0.2 points to 105.5, up 3.6 points from a year ago, pointing to a strong expansion, the OECD said.

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