22 November 2007, 17:55  Dollar gets small reprieve

The dollar got a slight reprieve on Thanksgiving day, bouncing off a yet another record low against the euro as players took a rest from selling down the beleaguered currency. To some extent, the dollar's reprieve today comes as a result of some normality returning to equity markets. In Asia and Europe, share prices were up slightly after yesterday's steep falls. US markets are closed to mark a public holiday. The relief is expected to be short, however and the dollar is predicted to resume falls. At the heart of the dollar's weakness is the prospect of a weakening US economy what with the fallout in the subprime market still being felt just as inflation appears to be taking off again, driven by sky high oil prices. Additionally, markets are still digesting Tuesday's downbeat growth forecasts from the US Federal Reserve and predicting that US interest rates will be lowered even further. "Investors are aware that the US housing malaise remains the root of current problems with growth so the dollar is less favoured at this stage against major currencies with sounder fundamentals," analysts at UBS said in a note.Against this back-drop, the dollar has been under pressure despite rising levels of risk aversion in the currency market. This helped the euro hit a fresh all-time high of 1.4872 usd, before falling back slightly. Meanwhile, in the euro zone, markets took in its stride a narrowing in the area's current account surplus as well as lower-than-expected industrial output numbers. Analysts at BNP Paribas warned earlier that the euro may be pushed well off its highs against the dollar if the figures show capital flows into the euro zone are easing sharply. But part of the narrowing in September was offset by a widening in August. Elsewhere, the yen continued to enjoy safe haven type flows. The Japanese currency has soared in recent days as a result of the rise in risk aversion. This supports the yen for two reasons; firstly, investors pull out of the risky carry trade where they sell the low-yielding Japanese currency to invest in high-yielding ones elsewhere. Secondly, with the market jitters driven partly by uncertainties about who is most exposed to the subprime crisis, Asian currencies have benefited as its believed most losses will be sustained in the US and Europe.

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