30 October 2007, 18:01  US October consumer confidence index hits two-year low at 95.6

US consumer confidence fell to a two-year low in October as consumers became increasingly worried about the job market and deteriorating business conditions. The New York-based Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 95.6 from 99.5 in September. That was its lowest level since the post-Hurricane-Katrina reading of 85.2 in October of 2005. Economists had expected the index to stabilize at 99.4. The confidence index has now fallen for three consecutive months and is down more than 16 points since July, when the financial market turmoil began. "U.S. consumer confidence is slipping fast to hauntingly low levels," said Jennifer Lee at BMO Capital Markets. Even so, "it is not too shocking that consumers are becoming increasingly pessimistic. Though U.S. stocks have come back from their August lows, consumers continue to grapple with tightening credit conditions, deteriorating house prices and record high oil prices." The Present Situation Index, which measures how shoppers feel now about economic conditions, fell to 118.8 from 121.2 in September. Those saying jobs were "hard to get" increased to 22.6 pct in October from 22.4 pct. "Further weakening in business conditions has, yet again, tempered consumers' assessment of current day conditions and may very well be a prelude to lackluster job growth in the months ahead," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center. The public's outlook seemed increasingly bleak. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' outlook for the next six months, fell even faster than the estimate of current conditions, to 80.1 from 85.0. That's the lowest level for the expectations index since it dropped to 70.1 in October 2005. If sustained at this level," said Ian Shepherdson at High Frequency Economics, "the expectations index is consistent with consumption slowing to a year-over-year rate of just 1.5 pct, much softer than the 3.1 pct increase we estimate was recorded in Q2. Expect a grim holiday. The percentage of people expecting business conditions to worsen in the next six months rose to 13.8 pct from 11.9 pct. The number expecting fewer jobs was up to 20.1 pct from 18.7 pct. Consumers were also less likely to see their incomes growing with 19.6 pct looking for income growth compared to 20.0 pct in September. In an earlier report, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for October fell to 82.0 from 83.4 in September.

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