21 June 2007, 10:39  US dollar little changed against the yen and euro

The US dollar was little changed against the yen and euro here with investors reluctant to position aggressively amidst a lack of strong new leads. GFT senior analyst Ian Copsey said with trading currently rangebound, investors will now be looking for a cue from tonight's release of the euro zone purchasing managers index (PMI) for June and tomorrow's key German Ifo business sentiment survey for the same month. He noted that the UK CBI industrial trends survey for June, also due out tonight, is likely to continue showing buoyant activity, with the sterling hitting a fresh 15-year high in overnight trading against the yen after the Bank of England meeting minutes. The minutes revealed a close 5-4 vote against raising UK interest rates earlier this month, including a defeated vote from the bank's governor. The yen meanwhile is suffering from yesterday's business sentiment index (BSI) which dropped to minus 0.9 points for the April-June quarter from a reading of plus 6.2 in the January-March period. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is holding support at around 0.8440 usd after it retreated, having touched an existing 18-year high overnight of 0.8476 usd. The overnight rise in US bond yields and the resulting fall in risk appetite is seen as one of the constraints for the Australian dollar, as well as lower gold and crude oil prices. NAB Capital strategists said the triggers for the Australian dollar to break above 0.8476 usd are lower US bond yields and rising global equities, both signalling sustained appetite for carry trades in the Australian and New Zealand currencies. "The Australian dollar will find solid support towards 0.8300 usd where we think such dips should be bought, and resistance is clearly at 0.8476 usd," NAB said. The strategists added that with a likely Bank of England interest rate hike in July, the Australian dollar is not expected to revisit its high of just under 0.4300 against the sterling which was reached on June 8. "With the Reserve Bank of Australia on hold in July and potentially also in August, the risk of a decline below 0.4200 stg is high," NAB said.

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved