29 May 2007, 12:21  Yen firm after solid economic news

The yen remained relatively firm after some solid Japanese economic data overnight reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise borrowing costs again in the coming months. "The main focus overnight was a marginally higher yen following a decline in Japan's jobless rate and higher than expected household spending," said Gavin Friend, currency strategist at Commerzbank Corporates & Markets. Official figures earlier showed Japan's unemployment in April fell to 3.8 pct, its lowest level since March 1998. Analysts had only expected a drop to 4.0 pct. It beat economists expectations for another 4.0 pct reading. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed spending by households in April jumped 1.1 pct in real terms from the year before to average 316,163 yen, the fourth monthly increase in a row. Elsewhere, some of the world's major markets return from the long weekend in the knowledge there is a raft of economic news on both sides of the Atlantic that could shift the major currency pairs out of their recent trading ranges. Daragh Maher, currency strategist at Calyon, reckons that many of the US numbers, such as the manufacturing ISM and first quarter GDP revisions, are likely to be soft while the euro zone will include strong data on business and consumer sentiment, as well as further evidence of excessive liquidity growth. "If the debate in the US is set to shift back to the potential for an earlier cut, the debate in Europe is centred on how many more hikes are in prospect," he said. In recent weeks, some solid US economic data, coupled with continued hawkish noises from officials at the US Federal Reserve, have combined to diminish market expectations that the Fed will cut its key funds rate from the current 5.25 pct any time soon. Meanwhile, a raft of buoyant euro zone economic news has prompted a number of European Central Bank watchers to revise up their expectations for the interest rate peak in the current economic cycle. More and more reckon the ECB will lift its key refi to 4.25 pct by September.

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