23 April 2007, 18:01  German Apr CPI Seen Slowing To +1.7%

German consumer prices are expected to have increased at a slower pace in April than in March, largely due to seasonal effects, including a fall in package holiday prices, analysts said Monday. Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.2% in April from March, while annual inflation is expected to have eased to 1.7% from 1.9%, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts. In March, prices rose 0.3% from February. "We see seasonal effects after the Easter holiday," said Alexander Koch, analyst at HVB Group, who expects a decline in package holiday and food prices. Six German states, that account for about two-thirds of all private purchases made in Germany, will release consumer price data Thursday and Friday, followed by the Federal Statistics Office's preliminary pan-German estimate Friday. Analysts were mixed over the impact of energy prices on inflation. Koch expected a surge in oil prices to have spilled over into consumer prices, especially in gasoline prices in April, but another analyst pointed to the likely benign impact of lower gas prices. "We expect gas prices to decline for the first time (in April), reflecting falls in oil prices in the past six months," said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank, noting that gas prices follow oil prices with a certain time lag. He also expected lower package holiday prices. Analysts expect no unusual developments in food prices, which may have eased in April. Below is a summary of April's CPI forecasts. The pan-German forecasts are based on a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 19 analysts for the monthly and 20 analysts for the annual figures. State figures are Dow Jones Newswires' own calculations. Times are provided by the individual state statistics offices and are subject to a change.

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