11 April 2007, 18:02  Dollar steady ahead of minutes to FOMC

The dollar was steady after sharp falls yesterday, amid a lack of newsflow, with the market awaiting tonight's release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in March. Given that the Federal Reserve suggested it was removing its bias to tighten monetary policy in a statement accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged, market players will be looking for further clues on the Fed's thinking, as well as the extent of concerns over inflation. "Anything that reinforces the idea that the Fed is still on an implicitly tightening strategy would be positive for the dollar, as a knee-jerk reaction by investors," said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics. But investors could have second thoughts about the dollar-positive impact of a tightening bent on reflection that higher rates could be harmful for the US economy and equities, he said. In any event, the minutes may have been surpassed by Friday's stronger-than-expected US jobs data, which is likely to prevent the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates any time soon. Elsewhere, the pound remained strong across the board, boosted by a report in the Financial Times that the UK Treasury is planning a tax exemption on dividends earned abroad. Such an exemption, which the Treasury confirmed it is proposing after a year of talks with industry players, would bring the UK tax system in line with mainland Europe. The news caused the pound to jump to week highs against the dollar and the euro as the market was reminded of the boost to the dollar gained from a similar act in the US in 2005. Meanwhile, the yen remained weak as the carry trade -- where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies such as the yen in order to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere -- continued to show no sign of unwinding. The market is wary, however, ahead of this weekend's meeting of G7 countries in Washington. Although analysts do not think the yen will be mentioned explicitly, they do expect a reiterated warning on "one-way bets" -- a comment made at February's meeting in Essen which was taken to refer to yen weakness.

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