19 January 2007, 11:03  The yen may fall to 125

The yen may fall to the weakest since 2002 after the Bank of Japan damaged its credibility by delaying an interest-rate increase, said Toru Umemoto at Barclays Capital, the most accurate forecaster last year in Bloomberg surveys. The currency may drop 3 percent to 125 after the central bank yesterday voted six-to-three to keep rates at 0.25 percent, according to Umemoto, whose forecast equals the most bearish among 48 analysts. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and ruling Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa before the decision asked the BOJ to support economic growth with its policy. ``A deterioration in the BOJ's credibility could push the yen lower,'' Tokyo-based Umemoto wrote in a research note published yesterday. ``It could be argued the BOJ kept rates on hold as a result of political pressure. Policy board members are questioning Governor Fukui's leadership and decision making.'' The yen, at 121.28 per dollar at 7 a.m. in London, declined to 121.60 yesterday, the weakest since March 21, 2003, as Fukui said there's no predetermined schedule for raising rates. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey is for the yen to rise to 116 at the end of March. Barclays' previous forecast was 122 yen, Umemoto said

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