8 December 2006, 15:30  OECD Oct composite leading indicator rises

The OECD said its composite leading indicator rose to 109.7 in October from a revised 109.5 in September. The September figure was previously given as 109.6. The OECD said analysis of the CLI data points to a weakening of growth in the US and the euro zone in the period ahead, but to improved performance in Japan. But it said interest rate spreads are now contributing negatively to the performance of the CLIs in all G7 countries. The CLI summarises information contained in a number of key short-term indicators known to be linked to GDP and provides early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns in economic activity, the OECD says. Such turning points are highlighted by the so-called six-month rate of change in the CLI, which compares the current month's CLI figure with the average of the previous 12 months. The six-month rate of change for the OECD area showed an annualised increase of 2.1 pct in October, the same as in September, but it has been on a downward trend since March, the organisation said. For the US, the CLI edged up to 107.7 in October from 107.6 in September, but its six-month rate of change weakened. The CLI for the euro zone rose to 109.4 from 109.1 but its six-month rate of change fell for the fifth month in a row. Meanwhile, the Japan CLI rose to 100.8 from 100.6 and its six-month rate of change improved for the third month in succession. The UK CLI rose to 102.0 from 101.8 and its six-month rate of change improved after being relatively flat since June, the OECD said.

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