21 December 2006, 11:57  Dollar rangebound ahead of US data

The US dollar was stuck in narrow ranges in afternoon trade here as volume tapered off before tonight's US data releases and ahead of the Christmas holiday break, dealers said. The US dollar was at 118.41 yen, up slightly from 118.39 in Sydney trading about four hours earlier, while the euro was at 1.3192 usd, slightly higher from 1.3190 in Sydney. The dollar was nudged off an early high against the yen after Japan reported better-than-expected trade data, which showed the trade surplus jumped 54.1 pct in November to 915.9 bln yen from 594.4 bln a year earlier, after having narrowed by 25.3 pct in the previous month. "The dollar has been unable to extend gains despite a big reduction in Fed easing expectations over the past two weeks, and remains well ensconced within its broader post-Thanksgiving range," UBS forex strategist Ashley Davies noted in a report. The euro also enjoyed gains over the dollar and yen although movement in both currency pairs (euro-dollar and euro-yen) was confined to thin trading bands, dealers said. They said the market will be waiting for the release of final US third-quarter GDP later tonight, with analysts expecting the growth rate to be unrevised at 2.2 pct, with only minor adjustments to the data. The chain price index is also expected to be unrevised at 1.8 pct. The PCE deflator, considered the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, for the third quarter could also have some impact on the dollar if the data shows continued inflationary pressure in the US economy, they said. The US leading indicator for November is also due tonight, along with the latest Philadelphia Federal Reserve economic indicator, while the November core PCE deflator is due for release on Friday. Meanwhile, most Asian markets, except Japan and China, will be closed on Monday for Christmas, and thus trade flows are likely to thin out even further, dealers said.

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