19 December 2006, 14:55  Oil edges lower

Oil edged lower on continued concerns over mild weather forecasts in the key US Northeast heating region. Falls were limited, however, by worries that tomorrow's US inventory data will show further declines. At 10.09 am in London, the new front-month Brent North Sea crude contracts for February delivery were down 37 cents at 61.76 usd a barrel, after falling 1.36 usd to close at 62.13 usd yesterday. Meanwhile, front-month New York light sweet crude contracts for January delivery fell 22 cents to 61.99 usd a barrel, after sliding 1.22 usd to close at 62.21 usd yesterday. Investec analyst Bruce Evers said prices remain under pressure from yesterday's mild weather forecasts even amid expectations for further stock draws in tomorrow's US inventory data. Prices lost more than a dollar yesterday as the US National Weather Service said above average temperatures will persist in the Northeast through to Dec 28, reducing heating oil demand in the world's biggest consumer of the fuel. Falls were limited, however, by further delays to crude shipments in the Houston Ship Channel. The channel was shut again due to thick fog, leading with some refiners to warn of slower fuel production. Evers said while the closure of the channel will likely cause larger than usual declines in this week's inventory data, it might have a neutral effect on prices as participants realise the falls are a result of a one off event. Analysts expect tomorrow's data will show crude stocks fell by around falls of around 2 mln barrels last week, although they remain way above average levels for this time of year. Distillates, which include the key winter heating oil fuel, are also expected to have fallen last week even as temperatures remained mild in most of the US. Oil prices gained nearly 1.50 usd last week after OPEC agreed to cut production by a further 500,000 barrels a day starting February next year. The decision came on top of a 1.2 mln bpd cut that came into effect in November. Evers said price gains on the OPEC cuts have stalled largely as a result of scepticism over compliance. The cartel is widely believed to have complied with just over half of the November cuts. Also weighing on prices were comments from OPEC yesterday that the risks for oil demand next year appear more weighed to the downside given the dangers to global economic growth emanating from a weakening US economy. Societe Generale analyst Stephen Briggs said in a commodities review yesterday "2006 may mark the shift from demand-driven markets to supply-driven-markets". "As 2006 has already showed a significant slowdown in most underlying demand growth rates, some investors mainly the hedge funds have already revised downward their expectations of demand," he said.

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