14 December 2006, 13:59  UK inflation expectations rise to 2.7 %

UK inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 2.7 pct in November from 2.5 pct in August, a key survey by the Bank of England and pollsters GfK NOP showed. This equals the previous series high in February of this year. Of those polled, 21 pct thought that shop prices would rise by between 2 and 3 pct, while as many as 16 pct thought that prices would rise by 5 pct or more. The rise in inflation expectations will be a major concern for rate-setters on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and will increase the chances that they will opt for a further interest rate rise early next year, most likely in February. Data released earlier this week showed that the headline annual CPI inflation measure jumped to 2.7 pct in November from 2.4 pct in October, the eighth month in a row that it has been above the BoE's target rate of 2.0 pct. The latest figure was also the highest on record. Asked to give the current rate of inflation, respondents gave a median answer of 2.9 pct, compared with 2.8 pct in August. The latest median was the highest since the survey began in 1999, the BoE said. The survey also showed that 72 pct of respondents believe interest rates will rise over the next 12 months, up from 65 pct in August and the highest reading since August 2004. As in August, only 2 pct felt interest rates might fall over the period, the lowest rate since the survey began. Asked what would be "best for the economy" in terms of interest rate movements, 19 pct felt rates should rise, down from 15 pct in August, while 26 pct though they should go down, up from 24 pct in August, and 36 pct thought they should remain unchanged.

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