7 November 2006, 17:33  Dollar steady vs euro as US elections

The dollar was steady against the euro as worries ahead of the outcome of today's mid-term elections in the US were offset by weak euro zone and German data. The Democrats are expected to make substantial ground on the Republicans in both the House and the Senate in the US elections, a result which is broadly expected to put some pressure on the dollar. The euro was unable to make much ground on the US currency, however, as one set of data showing an unexpected monthly fall in euro zone retail sales during September and another showing an unexpected fall in German industrial output kept the single currency firmly within the day's ranges. "Disappointment has been the theme since the European entrance to the fray, as euro zone and other assorted European data weighed on the euro. Yet with the dollar being hampered by the up-and-coming US mid-term elections the dollar has looked in no position to take advantage of the poor set of economic unveilings," said Matthew Foster Smith at Thomson IFR Markets. Although most analysts believe that a Democrat victory would be negative for the dollar, the impact is likely to be limited unless the result is particularly surprising. "The Democrats look set to make substantial progress in both House and Senate, but only a landslide win seems likely to surprise markets in a dollar negative fashion," said Steve Pearson at HBOS. Elsewhere, the pound failed to make any headway after a stronger-than-expected retail sales survey from the British Retail Consortium this morning. The survey showed like-for-like retail sales rose by 2.6 pct year-on-year in October, up from 2.4 pct in in September and well above expectations for a drop in growth to 2.0 pct. With the market fully expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates by a quarter point to 5.00 pct on Thursday this week, however, the news was of little benefit to sterling. "The market effect of this release is likely to be muted given it does not affect the outlook for monetary policy this week," said Daragh Maher at Calyon

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