23 October 2006, 10:08  US dollar mixed Sydney afternoon in tight range ahead of FOMC meeting

The US dollar was continuing to trade mixed in a narrow range ahead of this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting, dealers said. They said little in the way of position changing is expected until the release of the FOMC's statement on Thursday following the meeting. At 2.10 pm Sydney (0410 GMT) the dollar was at 118.75 yen from 118.63 in morning trade here while the euro was unchanged at 1.2615 usd. Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Besa Deda said no change is expected in the Fed funds rate of 5.25 pct As well, she said, the tone of the statement is expected to be little changed from the last FOMC policy statement on Sept 20. "The Fed is likely to maintain that some moderation in economic growth is continuing and that inflation risks remain," Deda said. She said such a statement should keep the US dollar well supported. Nevertheless, National Australian Bank foreign exchange strategists noted that the speculative community's net long position in the dollar last week grew at a slower pace than the previous week. Longs started the week with their largest net positions since Dec 6, 2005. The NAB strategists said surveys indicate sentiment towards the dollar has turned negative from slightly positive on expectations that the Fed will remain on hold, resulting in a large gap between the sentiment and the net long position. Meanwhile, CBA's Deda said the Australian dollar is continuing to be supported by expectations that the September quarter consumer price index data, due for release on Wednesday, will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 pct on Nov 8 after its monthly board meeting the day before. The Australian dollar is continuing to trade near a one-month high of 0.7605 reached on Oct 20. CBA is forecasting the underlying CPI to increase 0.7 pct quarter on quarter, making a 3.1 pct rise over the year, sufficient to see the RBA move to hike rates. Deda said, with a rate rise already priced in, the risk is for a lower Australian dollar in the unlikely event of a weaker-than-expected inflation outcome. September quarter producer price data released this morning showed continuing upstream price pressures.

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