17 October 2006, 17:09  Industrial Production in the U.S. Probably Stalled

Industrial production in the U.S. declined for a second month in September and prices paid to producers fell for the first time since February, signs inflation is slowing along with the economy, economists forecast reports will show today. Output at factories, utilities and mines dropped 0.1 percent, the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 61 economists before a Federal Reserve report. It would be the first time in more than three years that production fell in consecutive months. Producer prices slid 0.7 percent because of cheaper fuel, the Labor Department is forecast to report. The reports would bear out the Fed's forecast that slower growth is helping contain inflation, making it likely central bankers will keep interest rates unchanged through year-end. Production was limited in September as automakers built fewer vehicles, and economists said the amount of factory capacity in use probably fell for a second straight month. ``There's some slowing on the industrial side of the economy because of the general slowdown in economic growth,'' said Jason Schenker, an economist with Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``Inflation pressures are likely to ease over the next few months and quarters.'' Forecasts for industrial production, which accounts for almost one-sixth of the economy, ranged from a 0.6 percent decline to a gain of 0.4 percent. Capacity use is forecast to fall to 82.2 percent from 82.4 percent. The Fed report is due at 9:15 a.m. Washington time. The Labor Department will issue the producer-price data at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, producer prices are expected to rise 0.2 percent after a 0.4 percent decline on August.

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