16 October 2006, 10:40  Dollar near 10-mth high vs yen

The dollar held near a 10-month peak against the yen on Monday after upbeat U.S. data last week on retail sales and consumer sentiment further squashed expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates early next year. Market players said the U.S. currency's run higher against the yen may finally push it over the 120 yen line this week, but that with short yen positions reaching massive levels the Japanese currency may stage a near-term rebound. "I don't think the dollar has over-extended itself, but there is room for concern, particularly against the yen," said Joseph Kraft, head of forex and interest rates at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. "Just from a psychological point of view, we need to hit that 120 mark before there's a correction," he said. Investors will keep an eye out as Fed officials will be out in force speaking on Monday, including Chairman Ben Bernanke, St. Louis Fed President William Poole and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen. Poole gave some of the most cautious remarks yet from the Fed in an interview with Reuters last week, saying that the risks were bigger for weaker growth than an inflation flare-up. The minutes of the Fed's last meeting in September and recent comments from most policy-makers have indicated that they see a bigger risk of inflation staying higher or picking up than the housing market shakeout hitting the overall economy.

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