4 September 2006, 14:28  Dollar stays rangebound against euro

The dollar stayed rangebound against the euro on a quiet day with US markets closed for the Labor Day holiday, but the yen gained following data showing Japanese corporate capital expenditure at record highs. Further weak US data on Friday continued to suggest that interest rates in the US have peaked, though more evidence on moderating inflation will be needed before the dollar succumbs to sustained selling pressure, analysts said. "A clarification of easing inflation pressure is what is needed for a sustained dollar sell-off," analysts at BNP Paribas said. Friday's non-farm payrolls report gave "the first signs of this", showing average earnings rising by just 0.1 pct month-on-month in August, despite headline payrolls numbers rising in line with expectations, they noted. In addition, the prices paid component of Friday's ISM manufacturing survey declined by more than the market had expected. For the time being, however, the dollar is expected to continue to trade within its recent ranges against the euro and the pound ahead of a quiet week for data. "With the US Labour Day holiday today and the economic data calendar relatively light over the week, the prospect of an imminent break-out from the August ranges looks limited," said HBOS currency analyst Steve Pearson. Elsewhere, the yen benefited from data overnight showing Japanese corporate capital expenditure at a record high, pushing the dollar down towards the 116 level against the Japanese currency while the euro was trading well below 150 yen. The Australian dollar also gained on the back of very strong building approvals numbers released overnight and as interest rate differentials come back into focus for the market as US interest rates look to have peaked. The Reserve Bank of Australia board meets this week and although it is fully expected to leave interest rates on hold, recent strong data have increased the chances of a rate rise in November. The Australian dollar earlier reached a 25-day high against the dollar of 0.7711.

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