20 September 2006, 15:26  Major currencies stuck in narrow ranges

Major currencies were stuck in narrow ranges against each other as attention turned to the US rate decision this evening. While no change is predicted, the statement accompanying the verdict will receive close scrutiny for hints on future decisions. Michael Carey at CALYON said the language in the announcement is likely to be a repeat of the one in August. And as such, he doubts if the statement will have a major impact on the market, with the dollar "remaining resilient" despite some weaker releases this week. A growing number of analysts predict that the benchmark US Fed funds rate has hit peak at 5.25 pct in this rate hiking cycle. US rate setters brought to a halt a run of 17 rate hikes in August. Some sections of the market are even betting that the Fed will have to reduce borrowing costs next year to prop up the economy. "Fed Funds futures are now discounting a 12 pct chance of a Fed rate cut by end February," said Steve Pearson at HBOS. He feels, however, that there is an outside chance of tougher anti-inflation rhetoric from US rate setters tonight. "According to the minutes of the last Fed meeting, six weeks ago all FOMC members were keen to avoid a signal that the Fed was done. With markets now pricing cuts the Fed may take the opportunity to massage expectations differently," he added. Pearson also said the dollar may well get a boost from falling oil prices which could in turn help prop up the US economy. Also making the news today was the Thai baht after the military coup in the country. The news led to a scaling back in risk taking with the dollar and Swiss franc emerging as the winners while the Australian and Kiwi dollars suffered falls. Analysts said currency markets are taking a "wait-and-see" approach to the developments in Thailand which have been peaceful so far. The euro, meanwhile, continued to feel the effects of the slump in a key indicator of German confidence yesterday. The ZEW economic expectations index plummeted to minus 22.2 in September from August's minus 5.6, coming in substantially below analysts' expectations for a much more moderate drop to minus 6.9. The ZEW index has now fallen for eight straight months, with sentiment dragged down by concerns over German exports in the face of a slowing US economy, as well as worries over rising interest rates, a stronger euro and a more restrictive fiscal policy. Elsewhere, the pound stayed little changed even as the Bank of England expressed concern about the possibility of a pick up in inflation, indicating that investors are pretty much resigned to the prospect of another UK rate hike in November. Also out today, there was more evidence that the UK housing market remains robust despite the BoE's first rate hike in 2-years in August. The minutes of the central bank's rate setting body revealed a unanimous vote in favour of no change in September. "In general the tone of the report suggested nothing significant had changed since the August report to warrant a shift in policy, but the language also suggested there was a greater preoccupation with the upside risks to inflation than to the downside," Daragh Maher at CALYON said. Most observers predict a quarter point rate hike in November when the BoE releases its next round of forecasts for growth and inflation. "The minutes make it reasonably clear that there is likely another tightening to come in the current cycle, and November remains a close call," said Maher. "For now, however, the minutes will not unduly unnerve either the currency or interest rate futures," he added. Also out this morning, data from the trio of UK mortgage lenders associations indicated that the property market has enjoyed a robust summer. Only yesterday, Bank of England rate setter Kate Barker expressed surprise at the rate of house price gains.

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