20 September 2006, 13:28  BoE MPC voted unanimously to keep repo rate unchanged

The Bank of England's rate-setting panel voted unanimously to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.75 pct earlier this month. The minutes to the meeting revealed that the eight-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) believed that recent economic data did not warrant another move in the base rate in September. However, the panel's deliberations suggested a clear slant towards another rate hike. The MPC said inflation was projected to remain above the 2.0 pct CPI annual target for some time and that recent data continued to justify the quarter-point rate hike in August. They felt the risks to the outlook for inflation remained broadly balanced. Notably, one member, David Branchflower, said his dissenting vote for no change in August had been a close call. He felt that any decision to reverse the quarter-point hike in August would be "unwise" ahead of the next round of pay negotiations. "The signal to wage-and-price-setters in advance of the next pay round was sufficiently important that it would be unwise to vote for reducing rates this month," he said. The panel as whole was also concerned about a possible pick up in wages due to a rise in longer-term inflation expectations. It felt that inward migration will add to spare capacity in the short term but that in the longer term it will likely drive up demand. Against this backdrop, the MPC conceded that the pace of migration and its implications for monetary policy was "highly uncertain". The MPC also said that pipeline inflationary pressures may be rising, noting reports that manufacturers were finding it "somewhat easier" to pass on cost increases. Turning to external factors, the MPC said the outlook for demand in the UK's major export markets was at least as strong as expected although there was an element of downside risk from a slowing US housing market. Within the UK, economic data on GDP growth were pretty much in line with the central bank's own forecasts of a slight moderation over the next two years, the MPC said. The panel's most recent member, Tim Besley, voted to leave rates on hold along with the majority.

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