12 September 2006, 10:04   IMF says carry trade unwinding to remain an 'orderly' process

Recent episodes of foreign exchange markets unwinding carry trade positions have so far been orderly and gradual, and are likely to remain so in the future, officials from the the International Monetary Fund said. At a news briefing timed with the release of the IMF's global financial stability report, Jaime Caruana, the Fund's counsellor and director of its monetary and capital markets department, also repeated that risks remain for a "disorderly unwinding of global economic imbalances." "Markets again appear to price in little provision for these risks," Caruana said in Singapore, which will host the IMF and World Bank's annual meetings starting this week. When asked what the IMF thought of the recent phenomena of unwinding carry trades, or funds shifting out of high-yielding currencies, Hung Tran, of the IMF's capital markets department said: "Since the monetary tightening has spread from major countries to several other emerging market countries, we have seen this unwinding continuing to happen, particularly in May and June." "One clear impression throughout these episodes of unwinding is that the correction, while producing losses to some individuals and specific participants, have tended to be quite gradual and well absorbed by the international financial system, so we think that should remain the case going forward." On factors that could pose potential short-term risks to foreign exchange market stability, Tran said forex markets are exposed to a lot of "noisy" factors that could influence day to day movements. "We do not really spend a lot of time looking too much into this short-term behavior. What we try to do is to look over the medium-term, are there patterns of exposure that could affect the financial stability in the future." In its latest semiannual edition of its global financial stability report, the IMF warned of the large and growing foreign exposure to US dollar losses and the potential shift in Asian demand away from US assets as they diversify. But Caruana told reporters that although the risks of such developments persist, they are unlikely to pose an "immediate threat."

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