7 July 2006, 13:52  Dollar steady ahead in Europe

The dollar was steady ahead of this afternoon's closely-watched US jobs report for June. Before the ADP Employer Services survey earlier this week, Wall Street was expecting non-farm payrolls in June to have risen 160,000, up on May's 75,000. Now it's up around the 200,000 mark. If payrolls surge, then analysts said the pressure will be on the US Federal Reserve to raise the cost of borrowing once again next month. Expectations of a hike diminished substantially to around a 65 pct probability last week when the Fed's policy-makers published a relatively dovish statement alongside its decision to lift its key Fed funds rate a quarter point for the seventeenth consecutive occasion to 5.25 pct. Michael Carey, senior forex strategist at CALYON, said the spike in expectations means that the dollar's reaction will be limited should payrolls come in higher. He said much more may well depend on the hourly earnings gain and unemployment rate, especially if they confirm tightening labour market conditions. Elsewhere, the euro continued to make much headway in the wake of yesterday's hint that the European Central Bank will hike rates by a quarter point at its early-August meeting. The ECB's president Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank will continue to exercise "strong vigilance" with regard to potential inflationary risks in the euro zone as economic recovery gathers pace and oil prices remain high. Analysts said a rate hike next month certainly looks on the cards because Trichet said the ECB's rate-setting governing council will meet in person on August 3, instead of via the planned teleconference. It traditionally holds its August meeting via teleconference and without the usual press conference. "The muted reaction of both Euribor rate futures and the euro (against the dollar....is testament to the extent to which such an outcome was priced in," said Steve Pearson, currency strategist at HBOS.

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