24 July 2006, 12:54  US dollar near session highs

The US dollar was higher, near its best levels of the day in late trade here with gains attributed to short-covering after last week's dollar retreat. The dollar was hit on Friday, especially against the yen when China's central bank announced it will raise the commercial bank reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points, in a bid to tackle excess liquidity conditions in the banking system. The dollar-yen was knocked back to a Y115.83 low in New York trade Friday as the market also rode on two days of dovish testimonies from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as a signal that a further US rates hike in August remains far from certain. "Although he does appear somewhat less hawkish this time, we think he has pretty much kept his options open as to whether or not the Fed funds rate will go up to 5.50% at the 8 August FOMC meeting," said analysts at DBS Bank. "Meanwhile, as long as expectations remain in place for the Fed to pause at its next FOMC meeting, there will be little incentive to be bullish on the dollar," they said. This week, there are some important indicators which could provide hints of the Fed's August rate decision, among them being Tuesday's release of the consumer confidence survey in the US for July, together with existing home sales for June. US second quarter GDP data are also due on Friday and that should keep traders on their toes as well. "With Fed expectations still finely balanced and markets looking for evidence that the economy is slowing, US data will remain a key market driver," said UBS AG in a client note.

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