13 July 2006, 10:21  US dollar easier in Tokyo as BOJ policy meeting begins

The US dollar was easier against other major currencies in early afternoon trade with investors wary about taking new positions as the Bank of Japan began a two-day policy meeting which is widely expected to end with the announcement of the first interest rate hike in six years, dealers said. Analysts are picking the bank to raise its overnight call rate to 0.25 pct from almost zero currently, but the key focus will be the BoJ's accompanying statement and a subsequent press briefing by governor Toshihiko Fukui. That statement and remarks from the BoJ chief will be closely scrutinised to see if they provide any clue on the timing of any further rate hikes, with some analysts speculating the bank may raise rates again before the end of the year, while others downplay that likelihood. "As the market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, unless governor Fukui makes some really hawkish remarks on prospects for (further) interest rate hikes, we may not see any strong support for the yen," Mitsubishi UFJ Securities forex analyst Minoru Shioiri said. At 12.15 pm in Tokyo (0315 GMT) the euro was at 1.2710 usd, from 1.2706 in early Sydney trade and 1.2700 in New York late yesterday, while the US dollar was at 115.30 yen from 115.37 in Sydney and 115.51 in New York. Aside from watchfulness ahead of the BoJ policy decision, caution ahead of the release Friday of US June retail sales data, was also keeping the dollar to a tight range. The data is seen as providing fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate intentions going forward. "While some recent weak economic data, such as the May non-farm payroll data helped reduce expectations for another rate hike in the US, no one can rule out the possibility of a further increase in August," Shioiri said. "And even if the US is near to ending its rate hiking cycle while Japan is set to make its first increase in six years, interest rate differentials between the two remain huge, providing a good reason for further yen-carry trade," Shioiri said.

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