12 July 2006, 17:00  IEA maintains 2006 demand growth forecast, sees 2007 growth at 1.6 mln

The International Energy Agency kept its oil product demand growth forecast for 2006 unchanged at 1.2 mln bpd and said that for 2007, demand should expand by 1.6 mln bpd based on a continued robust global economic outlook. In its monthly report, the Paris-based agency said while high prices are expected to continue to temper global demand growth, the price related impact will fall slightly as the year-on-year price change moderates. "In late 2005/early 2006, sharp rises in state-administered retail prices in some non-OECD countries depressed demand growth, but these effects should moderate in 2007. "Overall, the outlook shows demand growth rising from 1.2 mln bpd in 2006 to 1.6 mln bpd in 2007," the IEA said. Turning to supply, the agency said non-OPEC supplies will rise by 1.1 mln bpd this year and by 1.7 mln bpd next year, adding that overall supply growth is estimated at 2.0 mln bpd for 2007. It also said its refinery analysis shows 1.5 mln bpd and 1.0 mln bpd of new refinery capacity being added globally in 2006 and 2007 respectively, together with a further 1.0 mln bpd of upgrading capacity also being added. "Overall, 2007 appears to show potential improvements in crude, biofuel and finished product supplies relative to demand. While this should, in theory, help ease some price pressures, geopolitical issues will not go away," it said.

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