29 June 2006, 10:04  US dollar firmer in Tokyo ahead of Fed decision

The US dollar continued to edge higher against other major currencies amid expectations the Federal Reserve will point out further inflation risks in the US in its accompanying statement due later in the global session, hence the need to raise interest rates further, dealers said. Mitsubishi UFJ Securities currency analyst Minoru Shioiri said the Federal Open Market Committee is unlikely to veer from its previous assessment that there are still inflation risks and that future rate decisions will depend on economic data. "But if the Fed offers only a 25-basis point rate hike, as widely expected by the market, that may trigger some profit-taking among those who had built up long positions on the dollar on expectations of a 50-basis point increase," he added. At 12.45 pm Tokyo (0345 GMT) the dollar was changing hands at 116.51 yen compared to 116.41 earlier in Sydney and 116.38 in late New York trading overnight. The euro was quoted at 1.2543 usd, compared to 1.2544 in Sydney and 1.2557 in New York trading overnight. If the outcome of the Fed's two-day meeting which started last night fails to provide fresh trading leads, the market is likely to turn its attention to the release tomorrow in Japan of the latest consumer price index data and the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey on business sentiment on Monday, dealers said. "If the CPI and Tankan are good enough, expectations that the Bank of Japan may move to hike interest rates in July should surface, weighing on the dollar," Shioiri said. But he said the dollar may find support around 114 yen if the Fed offers hints it will continue to lift US interest rates. Against the euro, the dollar was little changed ahead of next week's European Central Bank meeting.

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