21 June 2006, 17:14  Pound on backfoot as Aug rate hike forecasts diminish after MPC minutes

The pound slipped back after the minutes to the last rate-setting meeting at the Bank of England proved to be slightly less hawkish than some in the market had been anticipating The minutes to the June 8 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee showed that seven members voted for an unchanged base rate of 4.50 pct, with David Walton once again the only dissenting voice voting for a quarter point hike A number of Bank watchers had been expected a 6-2 vote in favour of unchanged rates, with the MPC gearing up for an August rate hike Analysts also noted that the minutes stressed the lack of second-round wage effects from sky-high energy costs and a prolonged discussion about the downside, as well as the upside, risks to inflation. In addition, the MPC appeared to have been comforted by the recent decline in inflation expectations, as evidenced in the BoE's survey earlier this week "The minutes underlined how difficult it will be for hawks to succeed in convincing a majority to vote for a hike this year," said Daragh Maher, senior FX strategist at CALYON "Given that interest rate futures have sold-off recently, these minutes should provoke a rebound, while the pound should come under renewed pressure," he added Elsewhere, the dollar remained steady, with most observers anticipating little change in the US currency until after next week's rate-setting meeting of the US Federal Reserve Though another rate hike from the Fed has been factored in, there is still some uncertainty about whether another one will be in the offing in August Analysts said the market is looking for direction from the statement accompanying the expected Fed hike in the funds rate to 5.25 pct on June 29 "So far the dollar looks fairly rangebound and the dollar bulls and the dollar bears are in stalemate," said Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group The acceleration in core inflation measures in the US has been the main factor why the market is now predicting a greater than 60 pct chance of two more quarter point rate hikes from the Fed. The spike up in US rate expectations has helped the dollar because it occurred at a time when short-term yield considerations were moving in favour of the euro and the yen, with both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy over the coming months Those expectations have been fuelled this week Earlier today, the ECB's president Jean-Claude Trichet paved the way for another hike in the refi rate to 3.00 pct in the next couple of months, when he told the European Parliament that the central bank is ready to raise interest rates at any time to counter inflation pressures, And yesterday, the Bank of Japan's governor Toshihiko Fukui said that a summer rate increase may be on the cards Though Fukui indicated that any tightening will be done in small increments and rate-setters should be alert to equity market movements, the markets interpreted his comments as paving the way for a possible rate increase at the July 13 meeting of the BoJ, provided the Tankan business survey at the beginning of July is strong

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