26 April 2006, 16:38   The dollar remained on the backfoot against the euro

The dollar remained on the backfoot against the euro as the market awaited US durable goods data this afternoon and tomorrow's testimony by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke. Though US consumer confidence and existing home sales data yesterday came in above expectations, the dollar was only able to stage a minor and short-lived rebound from its earlier lows as market players concluded that it changes little for the interest rate outlook. This leaves Bernanke's speech tomorrow "key for the dollar in the near term", said UBS currency analyst Mansoor Mohi-uddin. "If he (Bernanke) signals that the Fed is close to the end of its cycle then the greenback will fall sharply further," he said. Meanwhile, various other factors continue to conspire against the dollar, including speculation over whether the US will end its "strong dollar" policy, central bank reserve diversification away from the US currency, and geopolitical pressure, he added. Against the yen, however, the dollar regained some ground as market players reassessed the impact of the call over the weekend by G7 finance ministers for currencies from emerging economices with large current account surpluses -- particularly the Chinese yuan -- to be allowed to appreciate. The news caused sharp gains for the yen at the beginning of the week, but the dollar has moved back above the 115 yen mark today as doubts creep in that China will agree to make any changes to its foreign exchange policy. "The G7/IMF call for greater currency appreciation across the emerging world has been ignored thus far," said HBOS analyst Steve Pearson, adding that price action in a number of Asian currencies is "heavily suggestive of official dollar buying". Elsewhere, the pound failed to benefit against the dollar and fell against the euro after UK first quarter GDP data showed the improvement analysts had been looking for, with quarter-on-quarter growth still at 0.6 pct and annual growth up to 2.2 pct from 1.8.

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