29 March 2006, 13:19  Dollar little changed vs yen

The US dollar was little changed against the yen in late trade here with repatriation of funds by some Japanese firms before the end of the fiscal year keeping a lid on the greenback after it posted overnight gains on the back of the US Federal Reserve's latest rate hike and suggestions of more to come, dealers said. Overnight the Federal Open Market Committee announced it was raising interest rates for the 15th consecutive time, bringing the Federal funds rate to 4.75 pct. In its statement the FOMC indicated further interest rate increases are likely, which firmed market expectations for another hike at the next policy meeting in May. While the dollar strengthened in New York overnight, it has shown less enthusiasm in Asia today, and has generally moved in tight ranges against the euro and yen. Early on the dollar-yen slipped to 117.75 yen but then held firm between 117.80-118.00 yen through most of the morning. The pair slipped further to 117.68 yen in late trade and is at risk of more downside amid hefty and persistent selling of cross yen against high-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand units, dealers said. Repatriation flows before the Japanese fiscal year ends on Friday is also considered a factor in creating the two-way action which has kept the dollar-yen from rallying significantly more. Japanese exporters are likely to remain dollar-yen sellers above 118.00 yen but on the downside, demand seems to be strong, especially in the low-117.00 yen region, suggesting further falls will likely be gradual and contained. "Over a three-month time horizon we are bullish on the yen and expect the pair to trade to 113.00 yen once the Fed cycle peaks and the market focuses further on the Bank of Japan starting to raise interest rates," UBS AG said in a client note. The euro-dollar, meanwhile, straddled the 1.2000 usd mark for much of the Asian session before briefly breaking higher to 1.2020 usd with the single currency finding support from a set of strong German business sentiment data yesterday. The German IFO business sentiment survey for March rose to 105.4 points from 103.4 in February and was well above market expectations of a fall to 102.9 index points. Although there has been talk of a sovereign name buying euro in the 1.1970-90 usd zone, dealers also noted a buildup of stop loss sell orders lower which could raise the risk of a sharp pullback if those rumored bids fail to emerge. The euro-dollar subsequently dropped back to 1.2001 usd while dollar-yen rebounded to 117.90 usd in late Asian trade. "Unless the market decides to discount an overshoot in US rates, to say 5.25-5.50 pct, the dollar looks set to remain in its current broad trading ranges, especially against the euro and the yen, where monetary tightening momenta are building up," DBS Bank said. Looking ahead, there are no major US data releases due today although Thursday sees the release of final US fourth quarter gross domestic product numbers. The market consensus is for real 4Q GDP to be revised up to a 1.7 pct gain, from a preliminary growth estimate of 1.6 pct, due to an upward revision in business inventory growth.

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